Michael Neal

Michael Neal
Michael Neal is a Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders based in Washington D.C. In this capacity, Mr. Neal’s research involves monitoring housing finance issues that impact the U.S. housing market. As a housing economist, Mr. Neal has provided expert analysis and commentary on housing to media outlets around the country. Prior to joining NAHB, Michael worked at the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs. He holds a B.A. degree in Economics from Morehouse College, an M.P.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.

Home Equity Reaches A New Peak

By Michael Neal According to the Federal Reserve Board’s fourth quarter of 2016 release of its Financial Accounts of the United States report, household holdings of real estate, measured on a not seasonally adjusted basis, totaled $23.102 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2016, $1.535 trillion higher than its level in the fourth quarter of 2015. Home mortgage debt outstanding, …

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Non-Mortgage Consumer Debt Grows But at a Slower Rate

By Michael Neal The total amount of consumer credit outstanding rose in January 2017 reflecting growth in non-revolving credit, auto loans and student loans. Meanwhile, the outstanding amount of revolving credit, largely composed of credit cards, shrank. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s Consumer Credit release, the total outstanding amount of consumer credit climbed by a seasonally adjusted annual rate …

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Mortgage Rates in January

By Michael Neal Results from a survey administered by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicate that mortgage rates rose in January 2017*. Over the month, contract rates on mortgages used to purchase single-family newly constructed homes increased by 24 basis points to 4.02 percent. Although the monthly change reported by FHFA contrasted with a report by Freddie Mac, the …

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NAHB Survey: AD&C Financing Standards Continue to Ease

By Michael Neal Builders and developers continue to report easing credit conditions for acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans according to NAHB’s survey on AD&C Financing. However, the pace of easing slowed somewhat from the second quarter. In the 4th quarter of 2016, the overall net tightening index based on the AD&C survey was -7.3. The 4th quarter reading indicates …

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Serious Delinquency Rates Tick Up

By Michael Neal Serious delinquency rates on 1-4 family mortgages rose over the 4th quarter of 2016 from the previous quarter. According to the National Delinquency Survey (NDS) released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA), the proportion of mortgages seriously delinquent, those that are 90 or more days delinquent or starting the foreclosure process, rose 17 basis points to 3.13 …

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Mortgage Originations Grow in Q4

By Michael Neal According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit Report, mortgage originations grew in the 4th quarter of 2016. Largely resulting from 4th quarter growth, origination volume in 2016 exceeded its level in 2015. This marks the second consecutive year of growth in originations. As the chart above illustrates, there was approximately $617 …

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Non-mortgage Consumer Credit Grows at a Slower Pace

By Michael Neal The total amount of consumer credit outstanding rose in 2016 as both revolving credit and non-revolving credit rose. The growth in consumer credit is being fueled by non-revolving loans, particularly student loans at the federal government and auto loans held by credit unions. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s Consumer Credit release, the total outstanding amount of …

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Standards on CRE Loans Tighten as Demand Weakens

By Michael Neal The most recent iteration of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOS), which covers the fourth quarter of 2016, reports tightening of standards on multifamily residential and construction/land development loans. At the same time, demand, on net, also weakened. Previous analysis documented the tightening of credit standards, a measure of loan supply, on commercial …

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