Michael Neal

Michael Neal
Michael Neal is a Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders based in Washington D.C. In this capacity, Mr. Neal’s research involves monitoring housing finance issues that impact the U.S. housing market. As a housing economist, Mr. Neal has provided expert analysis and commentary on housing to media outlets around the country. Prior to joining NAHB, Michael worked at the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs. He holds a B.A. degree in Economics from Morehouse College, an M.P.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.

Home Equity Grows As the Composition of (Fewer) Refinancings Shifts

By Michael Neal According to the Federal Reserve Board’s first quarter of 2017 release of its Financial Accounts of the United States report, household holdings of real estate, measured on a not seasonally adjusted basis, totaled $23.526 trillion in the first quarter of 2017, $1.597 trillion higher than its level in the first quarter of 2016. Home mortgage debt outstanding, …

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Consumer Credit Expands, But At A Slower Pace

By Michael Neal According to the Federal Reserve Board’s G.19 Consumer Credit report, the total amount of consumer credit outstanding rose by 2.6 percent (SAAR) over the month of April 2017 to $3.82 trillion. Revolving credit, which is largely composed of credit card debt and represents $1.01 trillion, rose by 1.8 percent while non-revolving credit, which encompasses auto and student …

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Mortgage Rates Fall

By Michael Neal Following 4 consecutive monthly increases, results from the Mortgage Interest Rate Survey (MIRS) released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicate that mortgage rates fell in April 2017, its second consecutive month of declines. Over the month, contract rates on mortgages used to purchase single-family newly constructed homes declined by 10 basis points to 4.02 percent. …

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Household Debt Levels Recovered, Composition Shifts

By Michael Neal According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, household debt has returned to its previous peak level. Since the recession’s end, consumer installment loans have grown faster than real-estate secured debt and has been shown to be rising faster than household income as well. At the same time however, transition rates into serious delinquency are …

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Trends in Delinquency Rates Point to Continued Healing

By Michael Neal Following a surprising, but small, increase in the percent of 1-4 family first-lien mortgages that were either 90 or more days delinquent or were in the process of foreclosure over the fourth quarter of 2016, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the measure continued its descent in the first quarter of 2017. This measure of delinquency, at …

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AD&C Financing Standards Continue to Ease

By Michael Neal Over the first quarter of 2017, builders and developers reported easing credit conditions for acquisition, development, and single-family construction (AD&C) loans and the pace of easing quickened. Historically, results from the NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey have tracked quarterly changes in bank-held residential construction loans. The overall net tightening index based on the AD&C Financing Survey was -25.0 …

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Remodeling by Generational Composition of the Household

By Michael Neal Analysis of data from the most recent release of the American Housing Survey indicates that households with two generations and those with three generations tended to remodel more than households with only one generation. Within two-generation households, however, those that include a generation older than the household head were less likely to remodel, but tended to spend …

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Standards on CRE Loans Tighten, Demand Weakens

By Michael Neal Results from the most recent iteration of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), covering the first quarter of 2017, indicates that demand for both multifamily and construction and land development loans continued to weaken while lending standards on these loans continued to tighten. Construction and land development loans include both residential construction loans, …

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