Thursday , 1 October 2020

Michael Neal

Michael Neal
Michael Neal is a Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders based in Washington D.C. In this capacity, Mr. Neal’s research involves monitoring housing finance issues that impact the U.S. housing market. As a housing economist, Mr. Neal has provided expert analysis and commentary on housing to media outlets around the country. Prior to joining NAHB, Michael worked at the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs. He holds a B.A. degree in Economics from Morehouse College, an M.P.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.

Core Inflation Remains Steady

By Michael Neal Consumer prices, measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index – Urban Consumer (CPI), rose by 2.1 percent on an unadjusted basis over the 12 months of 2017, and has broadly accelerated from the 1.63 percent reading in June 2017. Energy prices contributed to the increase in the headline measure of consumer inflation, climbing …

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Economy Grows in Q3, Exceeding Potential

By Michael Neal The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy, as measured by growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), rose by 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017. The third estimate of third quarter 2017 GDP growth is slightly less than the 3.3 percent growth rate recorded in the second estimate, but faster than the …

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Headline Inflation Accelerates, Core Inflation Slows

By Michael Neal The Consumer Price Index – Urban Consumers (CPI) rose by 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the month of November and 2.2 percent over the past 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis. According to the release, energy prices accounted for three-fourths of the increase in the monthly change in headline inflation. Core CPI, …

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Fed Raises Key Rate, Balance Sheet Normalization to Accelerate in January

By Michael Neal In its statement following its December 12-13, 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.25 to 1.5 percent, a decision that was widely expected. Despite the increase, the FOMC believes that the “stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”. As illustrated by …

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Growth in Q3 a Bit Stronger Than Initially Estimated

By Michael Neal The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that economy, as measured by growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2018. The second estimate of Q3 GDP growth is moderately higher than the initial, or “advance”, estimate. With this reading, GDP growth has accelerated for two consecutive quarters after …

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Mortgage Rates Remain Low

By Michael Neal Information provided by the Federal Housing Financing Agency indicates that mortgage rates on purchases of newly built homes fell by 5 basis points over June to 3.93 percent. At this level, rates remain below the 4.18 peak level recorded in February. Meanwhile, a more commonly used rate reported by Freddie Mac indicates that mortgage rates rose in …

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AD&C Financing Conditions Ease At A Slower Pace

By Michael Neal Builders and developers responding to NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey continue to report easing credit conditions for acquisition, development, and single-family construction loans. In the third quarter of 2017, the overall net tightening index based on the AD&C survey was -7.7, indicating net easing. All major categories of AD&C financing also recorded net easing, with lending standards on …

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Core Inflation Ticks Up

By Michael Neal The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices faced by urban consumers rose by 0.1 percent over the month of October, slowing down from the 0.5 percentage point increase in September and the 0.4 percentage point rise in August. Over the past year, headline CPI grew by 2.0 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis, slower than …

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