Wednesday , 30 September 2020

Michael Neal

Michael Neal
Michael Neal is a Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders based in Washington D.C. In this capacity, Mr. Neal’s research involves monitoring housing finance issues that impact the U.S. housing market. As a housing economist, Mr. Neal has provided expert analysis and commentary on housing to media outlets around the country. Prior to joining NAHB, Michael worked at the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs. He holds a B.A. degree in Economics from Morehouse College, an M.P.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.

Implications Of FOMC Normalization Process For Mortgage Rates

By Michael Neal In its statement, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left its key interest rate unchanged at a range of 1.0 to 1.25 percent. As signaled in its last statement, the FOMC, beginning in October, will initiate the balance sheet normalization program. The contents of this program are described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy …

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Inflation Accelerated in August

By Michael Neal The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that its seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index – Urban Consumer (CPI) rose by 0.4 percent over the month of August, a significant acceleration from the 0.1 percent month-over-month increase in July. Prices of energy commodities, gasoline in particular, rose by 6.1 percent over the month after treading flat in July. …

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Declining Mortgage Rates As A Signal Of Future Economic Performance

By Michael Neal Contract rates on mortgages used to purchase newly built homes fell by 9 basis points over the month of July 2017. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, contract rates settled at 3.94 percent in July. In June, contract rates were 4.03 percent. After rising to 4.18 percent in February 2017, an increase of 64 basis points …

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AD&C Financing Conditions Ease, But At A Slower Pace

By Michael Neal Builders and developers responding to NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey continue to report easing credit conditions for acquisitions, development, and single-family construction loans. In the second quarter of 2017, the overall net tightening index based on the AD&C survey was -10.7, indicating net easing. All major categories of AD&C financing also recorded net easing, but land acquisition and …

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Strong Q2 GDP Growth Confirmed

By Michael Neal The pace of growth in the nation’s economy over the second quarter of 2017 was stronger than originally believed. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis within the U.S. Department of Commerce, real gross domestic product (GDP) is now estimated to have increased by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter. The …

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New Home Sales Falter After Encouraging Spring

By Michael Neal According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, sales of new single-family homes fell 9.4 percent over the month of July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000. Despite the declines, sales over the first seven months of 2017 are 9.2 percent above their level over the same period …

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LMI Indicates Continued Improvement Across the Country

By Michael Neal According to the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), 89 percent, 299 metropolitan statistical areas, recorded growth in their LMI Score over the second quarter of 2017. The index uses single-family housing permits, employment, and home prices to measure proximity to a normal economic and housing market. The index is calculated for 337 local markets, metropolitan statistical …

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Senior Loan Officer Survey As A Barometer of the Economy

By Michael Neal Lending standards on business loans to large and medium-sized firms eased on net over the second quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Historical evidence has shown that lending standards on business loans to these establishments is correlated with both the growth in the stock of business loans held by …

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