After weeks of incredibly subdued volatility, the bond market (which dictates rates) is starting to show some signs of life, but not for the same old reasons. Inflation? Inflation is one of the oldest and most significant reasons to freak out about interest rates. It was by far and away the dominant source of drama in the 70’s and 80’s, arguably doing more than anything to shape the way policymakers would think about their rate-related goals going forward. For instance, 3 decades of runaway inflation caused Fed policy to gradually evolve into a deadly weapon against higher rates. The other school of thought is that inflation was destined to fall for reasons beyond the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. Either way, fall it did! By the late 90’s core inflation was under 2.0% for the first time
Forbearances Increase; Rates Ignore Trump’s Covid; Did TRID Help?