Thursday , 21 January 2021

MBS Day Ahead: 2014 Has Been a Good Year; Bring on NFP

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This time last year when 10yr yields were at 2.86 the night before NFP, I remember thinking about where we might be by the end of 2013 and then about what 2014 would look like. Perhaps it was because the past 6 months had been so cruel and depressing , but I figured (or hoped?) we would catch a breather into the end of that year, but then worried that yields would make new highs in 2014. Well surprise surprise! The end of 2013 ended up seeing yields run up over 3% again and 2014 has been one massive, gentle, awesomely paradoxical rally (paradoxical when viewed through the historical lens, but of course we can account for it now thanks to Europe… again). So this year, the stakes don’t seem quite so high, and the fallout from bad bond market news seems less dire. The Fed is done putting…(read more)

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