MBS Day Ahead: Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and Tradeflows

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday morning, bond traders held off on more meaningful selling until they could rule out a big miss in the ISM data. That would normally mean today could provide a clearer look at organic momentum as there are no major reports on tap . But in the current case, there is still plenty of anxiety about what the following three days hold. Wednesday is more of a “set-up” day, where traders will try to use ADP and ISM data to get into position for the end of the week. Yesterday’s action suggests the path of least resistance is to sell bonds when the opportunity presents itself, with the goal of re-entering more positive momentum if technical supports hold . In that regard, today can actually be a good, small-scale acid test as to just how much negative bias there is. So what are…(read more)

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