MBS Day Ahead: At Risk of Moving The Goalposts

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Whereas “moving the goalposts” has a negative connotation in general (referring to the changing of the rules in the middle of the game), it’s a fairly common theme in the realm of technical analysis. That seems horribly counterintuitive at first glance because technical analysis is all about using objective data to draw conclusions that would otherwise rely on interpretation and opinion. That may be true for some technicians, but they would be so unsuccessful at their craft that you likely wouldn’t hear much from them. Trading momentum doesn’t operate on rules that can quantified in a repeatable way. Even technicians have to be able to adapt and make minor course corrections. I would argue that making such corrections doesn’t necessarily mean one is moving the goalposts…(read more)

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