Thursday , 1 October 2020

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Take Running Start at NFP

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today is probably the most interesting of the year when it comes to long term implications for domestic bond markets. If you think about it, things may have been awesome earlier in the year, but they were boring in terms of long term momentum. All we could really observe was that the long term rally was intact until/unless European bonds made a decisive turn. In fact, that’s been the case since the Spring of 2014! Sure, there have been some bumps in the road between now and then, but nothing like the past few weeks. Interestingly enough, that’s not due to anything that US rates markets are doing, but rather to the unprecedented selling spree in German Bunds. While the sell-off began just over 2 weeks ago, it was the 6 most recent trading sessions that did most of the damage. At no point…(read more)

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