MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Look Like They Might Try Again

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher and even crested 3% on the first 2 days of the month. Over the past week, however, they’ve been trying to change their evil ways- -trying and mostly failing. The benchmark for these efforts depends on your perspective, but the pivot point (a level that has tended to result in more bounces than breaks when approached from either direction) of 2.95% is well-situated to cast some judgment . Also nearby is the middle bollinger band (a 21-day exponential moving average that often serves as the dividing line between positive and negative momentum. Then there are the momentum studies themselves. These involve somewhat more complex math, but all seek…(read more)

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