MBS Day Ahead: Limited Econ Data–not Like it Mattered Anyway

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

At this point, it’s getting more and more tempting to just give up the typical pre-NFP hullabaloo. I mean really, how many more “all eyes on NFP” headlines do we need in a lifetime? All eyes are always on NFP, even when they don’t need to be. Arguably, those eyes could have taken NFP days off for nearly a year now. For one thing, payroll data has simply been solid and consistent. Then there’s the matter of mattering… NFP hasn’t–not since a at least April 2014 when I asked you to take the leap of faith with me ( HERE ) and consider that bond markets were more willing to take cues from European QE prospects than NFP. Since then we’ve seen bond markets go against the implied NFP reaction almost half the time! That’s unheard of! But why all this talk about NFP…(read more)

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