Wednesday , 27 January 2021

MBS Day Ahead: Recent Pain for US Bond Market May Just be Price of Admission

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Remember 2008 though the middle of 2011, or the 2nd half of 2013? Me neither, but I went back and read a few of my old posts and think I have a pretty good idea of what happened. One of the key differences between that time frame and everything since is volatility. Apart from the time frame mentioned, there was no volatility. Mid 2011-mid 2013 was the glorious confluence of US QE and European panic that had bond yields compressed in a super narrow range near generational lows. It was super awesome for fans of low rates, and super boring for people trying to cover bond market movement and risk. Boy, that one time 10yr yields almost closed over 2.40 sure was scary! (No… it wasn’t really scary, but it was the scariest thing we had back then.) We were just treated to a somewhat similar year…(read more)

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