Tuesday , 26 January 2021

MBS Day Ahead: Sometimes NFP isn’t the most Important Event on NFP Week

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Remember a few of those NFP days earlier in 2014 when bond markets ended up having a totally counterintuitive reaction? (If you don’t remember, but want to, here’s a reminder ). Long story short, at some point in the spring of 2014, the narrative shifted from a plodding Eurozone recovery and plodding move higher in domestic interest rates to focus squarely on a major inflation problem in the Eurozone and massive additional QE. Given the path of EU inflation, it’s not too hard to understand why it became a big deal. The ramping up of rhetoric regarding new ECB QE certainly had an impact on markets as well. Eurodollars had been gradually moving higher along with rates in the US, but that all changed on May 8th when Draghi said the ECB was prepared to act at the next meeting. From…(read more)

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