MBS Day Ahead: Suddenly, NFP Matters Again. Maybe This Chart Explains Why

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For nearly a year, NFP hadn’t mattered . That is to say, it ceased filling it’s usual role as big-picture guidance giver. It was no longer setting the tone for entire months of trading, and in many cases, it’s obvious fundamental suggestion ended up seeing the opposite trading response. The clear wrench in the works was–and possibly still is–Europe, both in terms of general economic malaise and QE expectations (now fulfilled). In that sense, disregarding strong NFP’s throughout 2014 made great sense for the traders who were smart enough not to be swimming against the tide of Eurodrama. But then our own domestic heavy hitters started talking about their own potential counterpoints to the seemingly rosy picture painted by perennially strong payroll creation. And what’s more…(read more)

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