MBS RECAP: Rates Begin to Make Case For a New Ceiling

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we watched bond markets sell-off abruptly last week, the best case scenario would have been that the selling was overdone and that we would soon be settling-in to the wider sideways range we expected to see in early March. Why did we expect a wider sideways range? Simply put, the consolidation range we’d been tracking was set to run out of room well before several big-ticket events could be resolved in March. As such, it would probably have taken a lot of doing to get rates to move above recent key ceilings at 2.75 and 2.82% in 10yr Treasury yields. When 2.75% was broken on Friday, we were quickly facing the possibility that 2.82% might show up a lot soon than we’d hoped. Although 2.82% could still be in the cards, today helps that risk seem less immediate. Rates not only recovered;…(read more)

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