Tuesday , 18 December 2018

MBS RECAP: Slightly More Active Than a Typical Summertime Monday

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Summertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely due to the presence of top tier data (Retail Sales) and a geopolitical event in the form of the Trump/Putin summit. The latter was never expected to offer any major revelations, but the former is always capable of delivering some bond market momentum. Bonds were just slightly weaker heading into the Retail Sales numbers. The weakness continued after the report came out stronger than expected. But wait! It was 0.5 vs 0.5, so how was it stronger than expected? The key difference was in the revision to last month’s report (previously 0.8 but now 1.3%). The “core” sales reading was also revised higher. Additionally, several GDP estimates…(read more)

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