Wednesday , 20 January 2021

MBS RECAP: What Today’s Weakness Was and Was Not About

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There have been some fairly silly suggestions floating around as to why bond markets have been taking lumps today, and they’re risky because they don’t really seem silly at first glance. The two worst offenders here are oil and stocks. In other words, several big media stories have casually credited these two related markets as being the the reason that rates moved higher today. Again, this is reasonably alluring because both of these factors have been meaningful in certain ways. The problem is that they had absolutely no meaningful relationship to bond markets today. Oil is the easiest explanation to rule out as crude prices declined just over 2 dollars over the past 24 hours will 10yr yields have risen nearly 6 bps. So yeah… not only is there no case to be made there, but the facts…(read more)

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