MBS Week Ahead: Refocusing on Data as March Begins

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It’s an exciting and dangerous time for US rates markets, full of risk and opportunity. For those of us who were closely watching trends in rates at the end of 2013, the last 14 months have been unexpectedly excellent. Much of the excellence had to do with the gradual pricing-in of ECB QE. Supporting players included Greek drama, a rallying dollar, positional imbalances (many traders kept betting on rates going higher, resulting in “pain trades” as those positions were flushed out), global growth concerns and stagnant wages domestically. Now as we enter March (a more volatile month than February, historically), we find ourselves with most of those factors on different footing. ECB QE is now a reality and markets must now assess how well they’ve priced it in. Paradoxically…(read more)

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