Mortgage Rates Manage Decent Day in Spite of Jobs Data

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved only slightly higher today in spite of an exceptionally strong Employment Situation Report. This particular jobs report is the biggest of the month, and by far the most capable market mover when it comes to economic data. When the actual result outstrips the expectation (a median of economist forecasts), the result is almost always higher rates. The bigger the “beat” the more reliable that correlation. And today’s beat was very big. Payrolls were created at a seasonally-adjusted pace of 321k compared to estimates of 230k. It’s no surprise that bond markets weakened following the report (which implies higher mortgage rates), but it was somewhat surprising to see how LITTLE they weakened considering the uncommonly beat. There were some internal metrics within the report that…(read more)

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